At least when Team Canada beat Team USA we all got to see it -- and know how close it was.

But when the final envelope is opened Sunday night at the Oscars, we will never know how close "Avatar" came to nudging "The Hurt Locker" aside. Or vice versa. Or exactly how a third movie pulled off the upset of the awards season.

It might be the contest that keeps East Coast viewers up late watching the 82nd Academy Award telecast being hosted by Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin. An arrivals special starts at 8 p.m. on ABC with the ceremony at 8:30 p.m. Sunday.

Here are my predictions but, as always, don't bet the snowblower money on them.

"The Hurt Locker"

The early front-runner was "Up in the Air," which gave way to "Avatar" as it sent box-office records tumbling, but then "The Hurt Locker" emerged from the back of the pack to become the favorite.

However, a "Hurt Locker" producer's much-publicized and admittedly stupid attempt to sway voters through e-mails that violated Academy rules could blow up its chances like a red-carpet IED. That story broke before ballots were due back to PricewaterhouseCoopers on Tuesday, and it could swing some voters back to "Avatar."

After the balloting closed, the Academy announced "aggressive campaigner" Nicolas Chartier will be barred from the Oscars although his nomination stands. If the movie wins, he will receive his statuette at some later time.

If that weren't enough, this year's expanded field of 10 nominees and something called a preferential voting system (which involves ranking, stacks of ballots and percentages) could mean a surprise come midnight or thereabouts.

But "Hurt Locker" would allow voters to feel good about themselves for honoring a picture directed by a woman and for making a war movie that belongs alongside "The Best Years of Our Lives," "The Deer Hunter," "Platoon" and "Saving Private Ryan." Oh, wait, that last one lost to "Shakespeare in Love," a choice that still astonishes me.

If it's not "Hurt Locker," look for "Avatar" or dark horse "Inglourious Basterds."

Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"

No woman has ever won this honor, and Ms. Bigelow is just the fourth to be nominated. Even "Avatar" filmmaker James Cameron, her ex-husband, thinks she's going to win. She deserves it for hiring up-and-comers, shooting in 110-degree temperatures and giving moviegoers a hint of what it's like to live with crushing danger.

Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"

He sings, he allows himself to be shown in less than a flattering light (paunchy, perspiring, drinking, vomiting), and he nails washed-up country singer Bad Blake. He finds redemption, and Bridges will find an award doubling as a well-deserved lifetime achievement honor.

Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"

The impossible now seems possible. Any time Bullock is interviewed, she insists she won't win, but every appearance seems further confirmation that she will. Meryl Streep may have to settle for "It's an honor just to be nominated ... for the 16th time."

Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

He, not Brad Pitt, emerged as the face of this Quentin Tarantino revenge fantasy. As a Nazi colonel who speaks German, French, English and Italian, he can make ordering an execution or a glass of milk a smoothly sinister act. His acceptance speeches, and granted he has had a lot of practice, are unfailingly gracious and smart.

Mo'Nique, "Precious"

Vanity was pitched out the window -- or down the stairs, the way Mary Jones sends a television hurtling at her daughter and grandbaby. If Mo'Nique doesn't win, expect a gasp that will roar up the red carpet and out to the hillside Hollywood sign.

"Up"

It had everything, including comedy, adventure, fantasy, voice talent, superb animation, a dose of sweetness, a few life lessons, soaring music and, in the right auditoriums, 3-D.

"Inglourious Basterds"

I typed "The Hurt Locker" and then erased it, thinking this could be how Oscar voters reward Quentin Tarantino, especially in light of possibly specious and suspiciously timed complaints from veterans about "Hurt Locker."

"Up in the Air"

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner weren't exactly sitting at partners' desks writing this screenplay. Mr. Turner penned a version based on the Walter Kirn novel and Mr. Reitman rewrote it, turning it into one of the best movies of 2009.

"The Hurt Locker"

The American Society of Cinematographers gave its top prize to the black-and-white foreign film "The White Ribbon," but I suspect more voters will opt for "The Hurt Locker."

"The Cove"

This documentary borrows elements from caper, thriller and other fictional films to tell the story of dolphin atrocities happening in a lagoon off the coast of Japan.

"Un Prophete" ("A Prophet")

Jacques Audiard's story of a young man, part Arab, part Corsican, who enters prison an illiterate nobody but is a fast learner as he rises through the ranks, won at the BAFTAs and Cannes Film Festival. I wouldn't discount "The White Ribbon," but I'm guessing on this one.

"The Young Victoria"

It is a costume drama, after all, enlivened with scores of outfits, including beautiful silky gowns trimmed with real roses, crowns, tiaras and dashing men's uniforms with braid, buttons and medals.

"Sherlock Holmes"

Its backdrop of 1890s London would seem to seal the deal, although "Avatar" or "The Young Victoria" could sneak through, too.

"The Hurt Locker"

The American Cinema Editors honored the war movie as the best edited feature film of 2009, a bellwether.

"Star Trek"

Did you see what they did with Pittsburgh native Zachary Quinto as young Spock? Or Eric Bana as a renegade Romulan? I did.

"Avatar"

Beaver County native Joe Letteri, a 1975 graduate of Center High School and part of the four-person team who worked movie magic on "Avatar," should pick up his fourth Oscar.

"China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"

The unbearable toll of earthquakes is much on our minds, and Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill turned their cameras on despondent parents whose children died when shoddily constructed buildings fell in 2008. They give voice to the voiceless and the heartbroken.

"Up"

When key scenes play without dialogue, as happens here near the start, the music is more important than ever. Composer Michael Giacchino's score carried us along and aloft for the rollicking ride.

"The Weary Kind (Theme From Crazy Heart)," "Crazy Heart"

The nominated song "Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog" echoed through my head as I shoveled and shoveled snow, but "The Weary Kind" by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett is the acoustic ballad Bad Blake is writing in the second half of the movie, and it embodies lessons learned.

"A Matter of Loaf and Death"

It's hard to vote against Wallace & Gromit, although I have a soft spot for "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty." Still, at 30 marvelous minutes, "Loaf and Death" dominates.

"The New Tenants"

Other nominees deal with heavy-duty subjects such as child slavery and Chernobyl (if I had a ballot, I would vote for "The Door"), but this one is all about deadly dominoes and one celebratory dance.

"Avatar"

Given recent winners, such as "The Dark Knight" and "King Kong," it seems the bigger picture has the advantage, and they don't get much bigger than this.

"The Hurt Locker"

The Cinema Audio Awards, celebrating the best in sound mixing, honored "The Hurt Locker," which is good enough for me.

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